Science & Research

In collaboration with researchers at Maynooth University in Ireland, RinkWatch team members mapped areas of North America where present average January temperatures are generally suitable each year for building outdoor rinks, and how this area will change by the 2050s and 2080s due to climate change.

Using projections from downscaled general circulation models, we show how under current emissions pathways, average January temperatures will become too mild by the 2050s to build outdoor rinks across much of eastern North America in most winters, and this area will expand by the 2080s to include most of the western United States.

Under high emissions scenarios, unsuitably mild January temperatures expand to include densely populated areas of Canada’s Prairie provinces by the 2080s. Many North Americans who build outdoor rinks every winter will, by mid-century, be living in areas where temperatures are only cold enough to do so occasionally.

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We used data submitted by RinkWatch participants to identify key temperature thresholds for having a skateable outdoor rink. The colder the air temperatures, the higher the probability a rink is skateable, especially once the average daily temperature dips below -5.5°C.

We combed through historical daily weather records dating back to 1942 for each of the NHL’s Original Six cities to count the number of high-probability skating days each winter. Why 1942? That was the first season of the six-team NHL: Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Montreal, New York and Toronto.

Key Findings:

• All six cities show declining high-probability skating days per winter
• Growing year-to-year variability in recent decades
• Toronto has one-third fewer skating days than previous decades
• Later start dates in Boston, Montreal, New York, and Toronto

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Using data submitted by RinkWatchers during our first two winters, researchers at Wilfrid Laurier University estimated the likely impacts of global warming on outdoor skating opportunities in Calgary, Montreal and Toronto in coming decades.

Key Discoveries:

• Rinks are most skateable when average daily temperatures are colder than -10°C
• Skateability deteriorates rapidly as temperatures approach -5°C
• Number of skating days will decline due to climate change
• Greater losses expected in Toronto and Montreal than Calgary

The changes will not be the same everywhere; the loss in skating days will be greater in Toronto and Montreal than in Calgary, due to regional differences in the rate of warming.